The Shock Heard ‘Round the World: US Government Bonds
From Alpha Exchange by Dean Curnutt
March 31, 2026 · 52 min · Episode 249
About this episode
The episode discusses the changing perception of US government bonds as a source of risk rather than a safe investment.
The “risk-free” rate figures prominently in how we’ve all been taught the foundations of finance. To price a security, start with the asset that is the safest and soundest and then add compensation for bearing uncertainty. It has always been self-evident that the global risk-free benchmark was the Treasury market. Deep, liquid and viewed as default free, US government bonds have been the recipient of capital during times of stress. And the reason is that the US has long been viewed as not just the world’s strongest economy but also a stabilizing force in global affairs. In this discussion, and with the help of four recent expert guests on the Alpha exchange, I argue that this is changing and the US is now becoming a chief source of risk. In the process, the Treasury market may be losing one its most important characteristics: the insurance feature. That is, its capacity to be durable to and even benefit from market shocks. We’ve all got to be asking, “how can US government bonds be a shock absorber when the US government is the source of the shock?” The implications for asset prices that result from a less stable US are significant and there are important questions to consider. I…
People in this episode
Host: Dean Curnutt
Topics covered
- US government bonds
- risk-free rate
- financial stability
- market shocks
- capital flow
- asset pricing
Keywords
- US government bonds
- risk-free rate
- Treasury market
- financial stability
- market shocks
- asset prices
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: US government, Treasury market
Places: United States, global
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