Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
About this episode
Tobias Adrian discusses the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report and the evolving risks in global markets.
The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report is a twice yearly, must read. Leading the excellent research done here is Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. It was a pleasure to welcome Tobias to the podcast to explore the IMF’s financial stability framework, vulnerabilities in global markets, and the evolving risks shaping the financial system. We begin with Tobias’ role and the evolution of the GFSR, which combines market intelligence, analytical research, and a framework for assessing financial vulnerabilities. He explains how the report has shifted alongside the macro backdrop, from an environment defined by low inflation and negative-yielding debt to one characterized by higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty. A central theme throughout the conversation is the distinction between forecasting shocks and identifying vulnerabilities. Tobias describes how the IMF focuses on leverage, maturity transformation, valuation, currency mismatches, and interconnectedness rather than attempting to predict the next catalyst. The discussion explores how these vulnerabilities can…
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