The AI Superforecasters Are Here
About this episode
The episode discusses the rise of AI superforecasters and their impact on prediction markets and the stock market.
The annual prediction market conference was earlier this month. This was the year prediction markets went from an obscure hobby to a multi-billion dollar industry; from semi-illegal to having the President's son as an advisor. I can't remember if anyone talked about any of that. It didn't even register. All eyes were on the AI superforecasters. I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months. I met another who said they were beating the stock market by 25% with a market-neutral portfolio - of course this could be luck, but they'd beaten Kalshi and Polymarket by similar margins. In fact, I believe all of these people. The extending-lines-on-graphs community has long predicted that AIs would beat the best human forecasters sometime in 2026 - 2027. What did you expect the bots-finally-beat-humans-at-predicting-the-future moment to look like? Vibes? Papers? Essays? In retrospect, sure: it will look like AIs making crazy profits on prediction markets and beating the stock market by some comfortable amount. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are-here
More episodes of Astral Codex Ten Podcast
- Chip Off The Old Block
- The Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index
- Should People Avoid Whole-Body Screening Info?
- Preliminary Thoughts On The Midjourney Scanner
- Waiting For The Miracle
- Never Cross a River Four Feet Deep on Average
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Astral Codex Ten Podcast podcast page.