Banks forecast 10% property drop: Is the Australian market crashing?
About this episode
The episode discusses the Australian housing market downturn, analyzing its implications for various stakeholders and future price forecasts.
In this episode of Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates analyse the deepening housing market downturn and what it means for buyers, sellers, investors and first-home buyers in 2026. The conversation covers the latest CoreLogic data showing capital city values down 1.3% in the June quarter, auction clearance rates slipping below 50%, and a drop in sales volumes. Pete shares his on-the-ground view that many prices are already 10-15% off peak levels but appear to have levelled off in recent weeks, with few genuine fire sales thanks to strong employment. Pete and Chris examine the Federal Budget’s limited impact on home ownership rates, the SMSF lending ban wiping out potential gains from new housing initiatives, evaporating new home sales, and falling unit approvals. They discuss shifting sentiment in key markets — including Brisbane homeowners pulling sales and the forecast that Brisbane could soon overtake Sydney as the most expensive unit market — alongside inflation easing and banks revising 2026 price forecasts downward (with some predicting 5-10% national falls). Main stories include “Budget buyer’s remorse” — why first-home buyer…
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