About this episode

Molly Hickman discusses the nuances of forecasting and the advantages of generalists over experts in prediction markets.

Professional forecaster Molly Hickman breaks down what it really means to assign a probability to the future — and why she believes generalists often out-forecast subject-matter experts. This episode explores the art and science of forecasting, from techniques to ethical considerations, and how AI and prediction markets are shaping our understanding of the future. Key Topics The definition of forecasting and its importance Techniques for starting in forecasting The role of AI and large language models in forecasting How to interpret probabilities and conditional forecasts Forecasting in complex systems like climate and geopolitics Ethical boundaries and red lines in prediction markets The impact of AI bots on forecasting accuracy and decision making Chapters 03:06 Getting Started with Forecasting: Tools and Techniques 06:15 Beginning Forecasting as a Beginner 07:31 Gut Feelings vs Market Wisdom 08:33 The Delphi Loop and Group Forecasting 09:39 Measuring Forecast Accuracy and Skill 11:17 Forecasting Long-Term and Uncertain Events 12:40 Extrapolating Trends and Model Limitations 14:19 AI Bots in Forecasting and Their Performance 18:16 Prediction Markets as Collective Wisdom 19:19…

People in this episode

Hosts: Autumn Phaneuf, Noah Giansiracusa

Guest: Molly Hickman

Topics covered

• forecasting
• prediction markets
• AI in forecasting
• ethical considerations
• complex systems
• probabilities
• decision making

Keywords

• forecasting
• prediction markets
• AI
• probabilities
• ethical boundaries
• complex systems
• decision making

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Breaking Math Podcast, AI, large language models, prediction markets

Places: climate, geopolitics

More episodes of Breaking Math Podcast

• What Actually Makes Something Alive? with Melanie Challenger · August 18, 2026 · 49 min
• Why Uncertainty Is Science's Greatest Strength with Stuart Firestein · August 5, 2026 · 43 min
• Robot Proof: Why Better AI Starts With Better People with Vivienne Ming · July 24, 2026 · 59 min

Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Breaking Math Podcast podcast page.