Betting on Taylor Swift or Who'll Be Made Pope: The Past and Present of Prediction Markets

About this episode

This episode explores the history and current state of prediction markets, highlighting their evolution and societal implications.

A live mash-up between Business History  and Bloomberg's Everybody's Business . On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket you can bet on just about anything - from Taylor Swift's album sales to whether President Trump will say a certain word in a speech. Many people worry about these new prediction markets, but the concept is far older than some critics might think.  We go back centuries to Papal conclaves; hear about how counting drinking toasts stood in for political polling; and learn how the US government tried using betting markets to predict terrorist attacks.    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People in this episode

Hosts: Business History, Bloomberg's Everybody's Business

Topics covered

• prediction markets
• betting
• political polling
• historical context
• Papal conclaves
• terrorism prediction

Keywords

• prediction markets
• betting
• Taylor Swift
• President Trump
• Papal conclaves
• political polling
• terrorism prediction

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Kalshi, Polymarket, Bloomberg

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