If China Attacks Taiwan: China's Economic Vulnerabilities

About this episode

This episode discusses the economic vulnerabilities China may face if a military operation against Taiwan fails.

Today’s episode is the third in a series of three that examine the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. The report is titled, “If China Attacks Taiwan” and it is posted on GMFUS.org. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for the Chinese economy. To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens…

People in this episode

Guests: Charlie Vest, Logan Wright

Topics covered

• China-Taiwan relations
• military conflict
• economic impact
• international relations
• Chinese economy

Keywords

• China
• Taiwan
• economy
• military operation
• international costs
• Rhodium Group
• German Marshall Fund

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: German Marshall Fund, Rhodium Group

Books & works: If China Attacks Taiwan

Places: Taiwan, Japan, Guam

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