If China Attacks Taiwan: Military Risks and International Costs
From China Global by The German Marshall Fund
January 21, 2026 · 38 min · Episode 117
About this episode
This episode discusses the potential military risks and international costs for China if an attack on Taiwan were to fail.
Concern about the possibility of a Chinese attack against Taiwan has surged in recent years. Wargames and research studies have focused primarily on identifying gaps in US and allied capabilities with the goal of strengthening deterrence. A relatively understudied question, however, is the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. To address this gap, the German Marshall Fund led a study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. GMF commissioned four papers on these key areas. We considered two scenarios that could realistically take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese…
Topics covered
- China-Taiwan relations
- military strategy
- international relations
- deterrence
- economic consequences
- social stability
Keywords
- China
- Taiwan
- military risks
- international costs
- deterrence
- economic impact
- social stability
- wargames
- conflict scenarios
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: The German Marshall Fund
Places: Taiwan, China, Japan, Guam
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