Lumentum: 90% Revenue Growth, a $2 Billion Nvidia Investment, Triple Digits Coming — and the Dilution Story Nobody Is Covering
About this episode
The episode discusses Lumentum's significant revenue growth, Nvidia's investment, and the potential dilution issues for shareholders.
Over a year ago, CSI did a three-part deep dive on co-packaged optics after Nvidia dedicated an entire segment of its GTC keynote to the technology — naming Lumentum and Coherent as the primary beneficiaries. The analysis was right. They did not buy. That mistake is now worth talking about directly. Lumentum just reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue up 90% year over year. Q4 guidance implies triple-digit year-over-year growth. Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in both Lumentum and Coherent, and separately announced a major fiber optic cable manufacturing expansion with Corning. Co-packaged optics products have not even begun shipping in volume yet — that catalyst hits in December 2026. The case for Lumentum continues to build. But this is CSI, and true conviction in a business means covering what could go wrong as well as what is going right. There is a significant dilution story unfolding that every Lumentum shareholder needs to understand before adding to a position. When the stock was trading at roughly one-tenth of its current price, Lumentum raised cash by issuing convertible notes — a type of debt that converts to equity when the stock reaches certain price milestones. The…
More episodes of Chip Stock Investor Podcast
- Wafer Fab Equipment, M&A Moves & The Lab 7 You've Never Heard Of
- Amphenol Deep Dive: AI Data Center Bottleneck, CommScope Drag & Is APH Actually Cheap? (Q1 2026)
- Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49 Billion in Free Cash Flow, the CPU Supplier Claim That Changes Everything, and Whether NVDA Is Actually Cheap
- Hospitals Are Using YETI Coolers for Heart Transplants — TransMedics Just Built Something Better (TMDX Q1 2026)
- $750 Billion in AI CapEx: Who Eats First — The Hyperscaler Hierarchy, Neo Cloud Risk, and Enterprise SaaS Under Pressure
- Faraj Aalaei on Why AI Will Let Anyone Design a Chip — and What Happens When the Semiconductor Industry Finally Catches Up
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Chip Stock Investor Podcast podcast page.