MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions Think That's Smart) | Presented by ProphetX
About this episode
Rob discusses the psychology behind risk aversion in betting scenarios, using an MIT professor's coin flip example to illustrate the irrationality of rejecting favorable bets.
A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it. In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story. Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for…
People in this episode
Host: Rob
Topics covered
- risk aversion
- sports betting
- psychology
- coin flip
- decision making
Keywords
- risk aversion
- coin flip
- sports betting
- psychology
- decision making
- ProphetX
- implied win probability
Sponsors
ProphetX
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: MIT
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