Episode 291 - Mundane Obstacles to Developing a Stats Model

About this episode

The episode discusses mundane obstacles to developing a statistical model for fingerprint evidence based on a recent paper by Simon Cole and Justin Sola.

Eric and Glenn start the episode with a listener email and then play a numbers themed game of Regional Quirkisms. For the topic of this episode, the guys discuss a 2025 paper from Simon Cole and Justin Sola titled "First impressions matter: Mundane obstacles to a forensic device for probabilistic reporting in fingerprint analysis". The article discusses practical and realistic obstacles and hurdles to developing a validated, accepted, and commercially-available statistical model for fingerprint evidence. The article takes the novel view that most sources cite either "practitioner disinterest" (or worse: practitioner rejection) or lack of push and influence from the Courts, Daubert challenges, or Authoritative bodies. However, once you remove those two obstacles and assume examiner 'buy-in' and Courts pushing for empirical data over subjective examiner expertise, what 'mundane' obstacles exist that most people don't realize or think about? The article discusses a number of surprising, non-trivial obstacles that have a huge influence on the state of statistical model development in the field today. Article: Cole, S.A.; Sola, J.L. First impressions matter: Mundane obstacles to a…

People in this episode

Hosts: Eric Ray, Glenn Langenburg

Topics covered

• forensic science
• fingerprint analysis
• statistical models
• obstacles in research
• practitioner disinterest
• empirical data

Keywords

• fingerprint evidence
• statistical model
• forensic device
• probabilistic reporting
• mundane obstacles
• empirical data
• practitioner rejection

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Social Studies of Science

Books & works: First impressions matter: Mundane obstacles to a forensic device for probabilistic reporting in fingerprint analysis

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