The Second Derivative
From Geopolitical Cousins by Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
June 1, 2026 · 1h 33m · Season 1 · Episode 65
About this episode
The episode discusses the geopolitical implications of the Strait of Hormuz, oil inventories, market dynamics, and includes NBA playoff predictions.
The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging (02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream (04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea (05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal (08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals (11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit (13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears (18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs (19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality (27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy (32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk (40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking (47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click (48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology (51:09) - YOLO Trading Era (53:57) - Savings Floor Risks (55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze (56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers (58:30) - Politics And The Fed (01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals (01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics…
People in this episode
Hosts: Jacob Shapiro, Marko Papic
Topics covered
- geopolitics
- oil markets
- AI economy
- NBA playoffs
- inflation
- K-shaped recovery
Keywords
- oil inventories
- Iran standoff
- market highs
- AI economy
- inflation fears
- NBA playoffs
- K-shaped world
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Thunder, Spurs
Places: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
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