About this episode

The episode discusses mixed signals regarding economic growth and US job performance, impacting central bank policy.

A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 7 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

People in this episode

Guests: Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton

Topics covered

• economic signals
• US jobs
• central bank policy
• growth forecasts
• cyclical lift

Keywords

• economic growth
• US jobs
• central bank
• cyclical lift
• surveys
• activity pace
• weakness

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: J.P. Morgan

Places: US

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