Bonds Don't Lie

Bonds Don't Lie

From Global Macro Update by Mauldin Economics

February 27, 2026 · 29 min

About this episode

Neil Dutta discusses economic signals and his cautious outlook on the economy.

Yields have every reason to go up—and they're not. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins Global Macro Update to explain what that signal means and why he's more cautious on the economy than the current consensus. Neil was among the few against the 2022 recession narrative and was proven right. Now he's watching the same four indicators, and the conclusion has flipped. Plus: tariffs, AI and the labor market, and a candid take on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination.

People in this episode

Host: Mauldin Economics

Guest: Neil Dutta

Topics covered

  • economic indicators
  • recession narrative
  • labor market
  • tariffs
  • AI
  • Federal Reserve

Keywords

  • yields
  • economy
  • recession
  • tariffs
  • AI
  • labor market
  • Kevin Warsh
  • Federal Reserve

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Renaissance Macro, Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve

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