About this episode
This episode explores prediction markets and a significant case involving betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Or the very good bet, depending on how you think about it. In this episode, we start by discussing the strange, fast-moving world of prediction markets — platforms where you can bet real money on whether a head of state gets removed from power, whether a country gets invaded, whether the Fed raises rates — and where the prices themselves are supposed to be the point, a real-time probability signal generated by the crowd. Then we get to the case that just blew a very large hole in that theory: a Polymarket account called "Burdensome-Mix" that turned $33,000 into $409,881 in about a week, betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — and the active-duty Green Beret who allegedly made those trades while participating in the raid that made them pay out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
People in this episode
Host: Hacked
Topics covered
- prediction markets
- betting
- politics
- Venezuela
- Nicolás Maduro
- financial speculation
Keywords
- prediction markets
- betting
- Nicolás Maduro
- Polymarket
- financial speculation
- Green Beret
- political betting
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Polymarket, Fed
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