E347: The $26B CIO Who Turned Superforecasting Into Alpha

E347: The $26B CIO Who Turned Superforecasting Into Alpha

From How I Invest with David Weisburd by David Weisburd

April 14, 2026 · 39 min · Episode 347

About this episode

Mark Steed discusses how superforecasting and probabilistic thinking influence investment strategies in managing a $26 billion public fund.

How do you manage a $26 billion public fund while keeping every investment decision disciplined, every team member calibrated, and every partner accountable? In this episode, I sit down with Mark Steed, Chief Investment Officer of AZ Public Safety Personnel Retirement System, to explore how super forecasting and probabilistic thinking shape portfolio management. Mark shares how lessons from Dr. Phil Tetlock's the Good Judgment Project inform every investment decision, why intellectual humility and calibrated confidence drive better outcomes, and how simplifying portfolios into broad buckets creates flexibility and competition for capital. He also unpacks the role of co-investments, structural alpha, and first principles thinking in public markets.

People in this episode

Host: David Weisburd

Guest: Mark Steed

Topics covered

  • superforecasting
  • portfolio management
  • probabilistic thinking
  • investment decisions
  • intellectual humility
  • public markets

Keywords

  • superforecasting
  • portfolio management
  • investment decisions
  • probabilistic thinking
  • intellectual humility
  • public fund
  • capital competition

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: AZ Public Safety Personnel Retirement System

Books & works: the Good Judgment Project

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