ITPM Flash Ep108 Tail Risk Inflation Hedge $TLT
From ITPM Podcast by Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM)
March 30, 2026 · 12 min · Season 2 · Episode 108
About this episode
Jason McDonald discusses the implications of geopolitical tensions on market resilience and explores tail-risk trade ideas related to inflation and bond yields.
ITPM Flash provides insight into what professional traders are thinking about in the markets RIGHT NOW! Markets continue to show surprising resilience despite escalating geopolitical tensions — but are investors underestimating the risks? In this week's ITPM Flash, Jason McDonald examines the muted reaction in equities following the Iran conflict, with the S&P 500 only modestly off its highs. He explores why this apparent complacency may reflect a broader belief that geopolitics "doesn't matter" — and why that assumption could be dangerous. We then dive into the shifting role of traditional safe haven assets. U.S. Treasuries, once the cornerstone of global capital preservation, have delivered poor performance through recent macro shocks. Meanwhile, gold — often viewed as the ultimate hedge — has also struggled during the current crisis, raising important questions about portfolio construction in today's environment. Finally, Jason outlines a tail-risk trade idea centered on rising inflation expectations and structurally higher bond yields. If energy prices remain elevated and inflation proves sticky, long-duration bonds could face significant downside — creating asymmetric…
People in this episode
Host: Jason McDonald
Topics covered
- tail risk
- inflation hedge
- geopolitical tensions
- portfolio construction
- bond yields
- safe haven assets
Keywords
- tail risk
- inflation
- bond yields
- geopolitical tensions
- portfolio construction
- U.S. Treasuries
- gold
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management
Products: gold, U.S. Treasuries
Places: Iran, U.S.
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