#204 - Prediction Markets
About this episode
This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of prediction markets, their history, and current regulatory challenges.
Prediction markets are a multi-billion dollar industry, led by companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. They are also controversial. Some want them banned and believe they are operating illegally, while others see them as invaluable truth-seeking markets. This podcast is a multi-hour deep dive on prediction markets, starting from conclave betting in 15th century Rome to the CFTC's proposed rulemaking on Rule 40.11 earlier this month. My goal: The internet's most comprehensive explainer on prediction markets. By the end of this episode, I promise you'll be in the top percentile for understanding prediction markets, regardless of where you're starting from. (You just might need to listen twice. There's a lot here.) Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:40 16th century papal betting (Koleman Strumpf) 11:13 Insider trading rules on prediction markets (Bobby DeNault) 16:20 The Google search insider case and Rule 180.1 (Sam Enzer) 27:38 Why prediction markets matter (Chris Giancarlo) 33:20 Election betting in America38:35 Iowa Electronic Markets and the 1992 no-action letter 45:56 Dodd-Frank, swaps and the Special Rule 48:08 Senator Lincoln on Super Bowl and Derby contracts 55:49 Parlays as swaps…
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