The economic outlook amid an energy crisis three times larger than the shock from Russia's invasion of Ukraine
About this episode
The episode discusses the economic implications of a significant energy crisis exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the US and global economy.
US inflation in April reached its highest level in three years, driven in part by the war in Iran. The volume of oil flows affected by the conflict is three times larger than the disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, yet many firms – especially in the US – don't seem too concerned. According to our analysts, they should be. Join us for an enlightening, if not light-hearted, discussion about the impact of this crisis and how it affects the economic future for the US, Europe, and the global economy. Our guests: Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, RaboResearch Christian Lawrence, Head of Americas & Energy Market Strategy, RaboResearch Joe DeLaura, Senior Energy Strategist, RaboResearch Relevant time stamps: 2:11 – The US-Israel campaign against Iran and the immediate energy market shock. 6:52 – Why markets could be underestimating the length and impact of the crisis. 14:02 – The macroeconomic, inflationary, and consumer impacts of higher energy prices. 27:04 – Implications of the Iran war for Fed policy and interest rates. 31:21 – How the conflict is shifting our perspectives on globalization and geopolitics. 44:43 – Broader macroeconomic themes: taxes…
People in this episode
Guests: Jane Foley, Christian Lawrence, Joe DeLaura
Topics covered
- economic outlook
- energy crisis
- inflation
- geopolitics
- global economy
- market analysis
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: RaboResearch
Places: US, Europe, Iran, Ukraine
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