Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month

Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month

May 22, 2026 · 22 min

About this episode

Mark Leonard discusses the Iran nuclear monitor with Kelsey Davenport and Ellie Geranmayeh, exploring the future of Iran's nuclear program and international negotiations.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kelsey Davenport , director for non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, and Ellie Geranmayeh , deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor . The new online tool, updated monthly, forecasts Iran’s nuclear programme after a year of Israeli and American strikes, and maps possible paths for future negotiations, inspections and escalation.  Almost a year on from the first US and Israeli bombings of Iran, uncertainty is growing around the future of the country’s nuclear programme. With a fragile ceasefire in place, Mark, Kelsey and Ellie discuss the six scenarios outlined in the Iran nuclear monitor and whether Europe has a role in shaping negotiations. They also suggest that military strikes alone have not resolved the nuclear dilemma: instead, any durable agreement will likely depend on phased confidence-building, intrusive inspections and difficult political compromises on both sides.  Together, they explore three critical questions shaping the future of peace negotiations: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? Can Tehran and…

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