World Cup 2026: Goldman Sachs Predicts The Winner

About this episode

This episode explores the financial dynamics behind the World Cup, including predictions from Goldman Sachs and the impact of prediction markets.

What does the World Cup have in common with Wall Street trading desks? In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down the hidden financial world behind the biggest sporting event on the planet. From Goldman Sachs’ 100,000-run quant model predicting the winner of the tournament, to the rise of Polymarket and decentralised prediction exchanges, this is the World Cup through the lens of markets, trading and probability. We explore how bookmakers operate like market makers, why prediction markets are disrupting the betting industry, and how billions of dollars are now being traded on World Cup outcomes. We also dive into the data behind implied probabilities, elo ratings, liquidity, market inefficiencies and why England may be one of the most mispriced teams in the tournament. Plus, we uncover fascinating ECB research showing how football matches cause trading volume in London markets to collapse in real time. If you want to understand how finance, probability, trading and sport collide, this episode is for you. (00:00) The Finance Behind The World Cup (03:51) How Bookies Really Make Money (05:48) The Problem With “Smart Money” (14:03) Prediction Markets Explained (16:06)…

Topics covered

• World Cup
• financial analysis
• prediction markets
• trading
• sports betting
• Goldman Sachs predictions

Keywords

• World Cup 2026
• Goldman Sachs
• Polymarket
• prediction markets
• sports trading
• Elo ratings
• market inefficiencies

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Polymarket, ECB

Places: World Cup, England, Argentina, France

More episodes of Market Maker

• US CPI, ECB Rate Hikes & The Political Risk Facing UK Markets · June 12, 2026 · 43 min
• OpenAI’s IPO Filing Explained | SpaceX IPO Update · June 10, 2026 · 27 min
• SpaceX IPO Roadshow Begins | Anthropic’s IPO Race + Berkshire Hathaway’s Next Move · June 8, 2026 · 50 min
• The SpaceX IPO Explained | The Complete Deep Dive · June 1, 2026 · 1h 1m
• How Banks Make Billions From Market Volatility · May 28, 2026 · 53 min
• Student to Corporate Finance Analyst: Networking & Career Advice That Works · May 27, 2026 · 33 min