The Problems Of Probabilities | Prediction & Gambling In The Future
About this episode
The episode discusses the complexities of understanding probabilities in gambling and the potential future of AI in predicting outcomes.
After a year of gambling I am none the wiser of understanding probabilities. In Episode #523 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: probabilities/gambling/arbitrage, how my brother first found ways to exploit betting promotions, using sports betting apps in conjunction with Polymarket, how markets set probabilities, whether AI will become genuinely better than humans at predicting future outcomes, complexity making exact prediction almost impossible and the future of livestreaming and personal data. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals Timeline: (00:00:00) Intro (00:02:33) How betting promotions can tilt the odds (00:05:52) Getting gubbed and the limits of beating bookies (00:07:28) Casino systems, card counting and roulette stories (00:12:29) Polymarket, lay bets and online arbitrage appeal (00:15:17) Bots, algorithmic trading and speed advantages (00:20:56) A human edge in clunky betting markets (00:23:04) Probability confusion and betting both sides (00:27:36) How do you build probabilities from scratch (00:35:52) Weather, complexity and what probability really means (00:43:58) Can AI actually predict the future (00:54:30) Why the betting edge disappears over time…
More episodes of Mere Mortals Conversations
- Juan's Robotic Future | How SciFi Are We Going To Get?
- Stop Proving You Can Do Hard Things | 17 Lessons From 2026
- Celebrating The Big Events | When Does Joy Turn Into Obligation?
- Bitcoin Bros & Bear Market Blues | What's The Point In Owning Crypto?
- Monthly Goals | July 2026
- We Ran A Marathon | .... But Why ?
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Mere Mortals Conversations podcast page.