Thinking In Bets For Better Decision Making | How Prediction Markets Might Help Your Brain

Thinking In Bets For Better Decision Making | How Prediction Markets Might Help Your Brain

From Mere Mortals Conversations by Kyrin Down & Juan Granados

March 8, 2026 · 1h 5m

About this episode

The episode discusses how the poker mindset can enhance decision-making in everyday life.

The mindset of a poker pro can now be applied outside of a narrow game. In Episode #517 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Annie Duke’s 'Thinking In Bets' book and how the poker mindset can reshape everyday decision-making, why focusing on process over outcomes matters,  how using AI as a sounding board revealed hidden risk-taking in my own finances, testing assumptions in small experiments before going all-in, how arbitrage opportunities appear with prediction markets and why clarity on desired outcomes should drive bet-sizing. No support for this week so no beanie either. Also my laptop died suddenly hence the rather curt cut off at the end. Luckily we were almost done anyway phew. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals Timeline: (00:00:00) Intro (00:03:22) Outcome vs process: luck, good decisions, and post mortems (00:09:16) Poker as repeated high impact decisions and learning while folding (00:12:45) Symmetry, asymmetry, and spotting obviously bad bets (00:18:34) Focus on decision quality, not results: lessons from early poker hands (00:23:34) Plans that fail from wrong models: refining sell strategies (00:28:15) Designing a simple, robust framework: time…

People in this episode

Hosts: Kyrin Down, Juan Granados

Topics covered

  • decision making
  • prediction markets
  • poker mindset
  • risk-taking
  • process over outcomes
  • financial strategies

Keywords

  • decision making
  • poker
  • Annie Duke
  • risk-taking
  • prediction markets
  • financial strategies
  • process over outcomes

Mentioned in this episode

Books & works: Thinking In Bets

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