Contingency of Structures: Triggers and the Social Geography of Revolutionary Episodes in Iran 2017–2022

About this episode

The episode discusses the triggers and social geography of revolutionary episodes in Iran from 2017 to 2022, highlighting the interplay between structural conditions and contingent events.

This MENA Politics Seminar was delivered at the Middle East Centre on Thursday 7 May 2026 by Dr Ali Kadivar (Boston College) and chaired by Professor Neil Ketchley (St Antony’s College). What drives the uneven geographic spread of revolutionary episodes? While structural approaches emphasize pre-existing fault lines, contingency approaches highlight emergent processes. We synthesize these perspectives, arguing that specific triggers shape a revolutionary episode's social geography by activating certain fault lines while leaving others dormant. Through a comparative analysis of three revolutionary episodes in Iran (2017–2022), each with a distinct trigger, we demonstrate how different triggers shape patterns of contention. Using event-history and spatial regression analysis of subnational protest data alongside socioeconomic and political variables, we show that a fuel price hike activated grievances in oil-producing areas, while a repressive event targeting a woman from an ethnic and religious minority mobilized protests in minority-populated districts. Our findings illustrate how triggers structure revolutionary mobilization, offering broader insights into the interaction…

People in this episode

Host: Professor Neil Ketchley

Guest: Dr Ali Kadivar

Topics covered

• revolutionary episodes
• social geography
• Iran
• contentious politics
• protest mobilization
• socioeconomic variables

Keywords

• Iran
• revolution
• protests
• social geography
• contention
• socioeconomic factors
• event-history analysis

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Boston College, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University

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