Weighing Recession Probabilities

About this episode

The episode discusses the implications of ongoing hostilities with Iran on recession probabilities, featuring insights from Shandor Whitcher's recession model.

Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it’s not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting.

People in this episode

Host: Inside Economics team

Guest: Shandor Whitcher

Topics covered

• recession probabilities
• financial markets
• economic impact
• random forest model
• hostilities with Iran

Keywords

• recession
• Iran
• financial markets
• economy
• random forest model
• economic outlook

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Moody's Analytics

Places: Iran

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