The NBA's Tanking Problem Has a Mathematical Solution — But Owners Won't Like It | On The Ball with Ric Bucher
About this episode
Ric Bucher discusses the NBA's tanking problem with Dr. TJ Highley, who proposes a mathematical solution that challenges the current draft lottery system.
Is the NBA draft lottery rigged to reward losing? Veteran NBA insider Ric Bucher sits down with Dr. TJ Highley , Associate Professor of Math & Computer Science at LaSalle University, who has developed a groundbreaking anti-tanking formula that could change the NBA forever — and it doesn't involve eliminating the draft. Highley's COLA (Carryover Lottery Allocation) system strips tanking of its incentive by rewarding playoff history instead of regular season losses. Teams would accumulate lottery tickets over time based on sustained failure — not deliberate losing — making intentional tanking mathematically pointless. But Bucher pushes back with 30 years of hard-won NBA knowledge: not every owner wants to win. Some — following the Donald Sterling playbook — are perfectly content selling hope while pocketing profits. Can any formula fix that? Plus: Bucher delivers a candid reassessment of the Denver Nuggets title chances and why the Michael Porter Jr. trade may have cost them more than anyone realized — rebounding. And a sharp takedown of the analytics crowd that thinks they've cracked the code on building a championship team. ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS 00:00 — Intro & Book Announcement…
People in this episode
Host: Ric Bucher
Guest: Dr. TJ Highley
Topics covered
- NBA draft lottery
- tanking
- anti-tanking formula
- playoff history
- analytics in basketball
- Denver Nuggets
- Michael Porter Jr. trade
Keywords
- NBA
- tanking
- draft lottery
- COLA
- analytics
- Denver Nuggets
- Michael Porter Jr.
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: LaSalle University, NBA, Denver Nuggets
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