About this episode

Danny Moses interviews Nicole Kagan about her role at Kalshi and the intricacies of prediction markets.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi’s prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi’s research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has…

People in this episode

Host: Danny Moses

Guest: Nicole Kagan

Topics covered

• prediction markets
• research
• financial markets
• contract writing
• price discovery
• institutional hedging

Keywords

• Kalshi
• Nicole Kagan
• Danny Moses
• prediction markets
• financial research
• contract writing
• CFTC

Sponsors

Kalshi App

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Kalshi, Bridgewater, CFTC, CME

Products: Kalshi App

Places: Oxford

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