Speculation Season – Rolex GMT Master, Swiss Watch Data, & Betting Markets – Episode 71
About this episode
The episode discusses speculation around the Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi, the Swiss watch industry report, and new watch futures markets.
Rumours about the Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi have reached a boiling point. Authorised dealer websites — controlled by Rolex, not the retailers — have quietly dropped the reference, and WatchPro is reporting that dealers have been told to expect no further deliveries. Asher finds it a dull story; Gabe is more interested in what comes next from Rolex in dress watches, the 1908 collection, and whether the long-dormant Milgauss finally returns. The centrepiece of the episode is the fallout from the annual Morgan Stanley/LuxConsult Swiss Watch Industry report, which drew unusually public pushback from Swatch Group and Tudor this year. Gabe frames Swatch's objections in context: a holding company with depressed stock, underperforming peers, and an activist investor pressing against the Hayek family's control. Their counter-arguments cherry-pick individual figures without offering systematic data — and suing, he notes, gets complicated fast when Swiss civil law has no discovery process. The episode closes on Kalshi's new watch futures prediction market, built in partnership with Bezel. Gabe is sceptical — the market is too thin, insider-trading risk too obvious, and a wrong prediction…
More episodes of Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry
- Breitling vs. Richemont – Opposite Bets on an Industry in Flux – Episode 78
- The Sleepers of Watches and Wonders 2026 – Our Favorite Releases from Geneva – Episode 77
- Is Watches and Wonders Dead? – Long Live Geneva Watch Week – Episode 76
- Watch Brand Draft – Picking Our Fantasy Watch Businesses – Episode 75
- The Rise of F.P.Journe – Hype, Substance, or Both? – Episode 74
- Rolex Pre-owned Values Slide – Certified Pre-owned to the Rescue? – Episode 73
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