About this episode

Stijn Schmitz discusses the current commodity cycle and investment strategies with Mining Stock Monkey, focusing on risk management and selectivity in commodities.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Mining Stock Monkey to the show. The discussion centers on navigating the current commodity cycle with a disciplined, downside-protection-first approach. He emphasizes that while structural tailwinds like electrification, AI infrastructure, and global poverty reduction support a broad commodities bull market, selectivity is critical. He starts by identifying historically cheap commodities—where low prices eventually cure low prices by curbing supply and boosting demand—and then evaluates individual companies on their risk-reward profiles. Nickel tops his list, but he exclusively seeks high-grade nickel-sulfide deposits, avoiding laterite projects due to severe environmental and human rights concerns in Indonesia. Potash also appears cheap, with BHP’s delayed and over-budget Jansen mine potentially discouraging new supply; he notes producers like Nutrien and Mosaic, though he favors royalty exposure through Altius Minerals. In oil and gas, equities are undervalued at spot prices, but the futures curve points to a sharp decline, making him cautious. He prioritizes protecting against large losses, explaining that avoiding a 75% drop is far more valuable than…

People in this episode

Host: Stijn Schmitz

Guest: Mining Stock Monkey

Topics covered

• commodity cycle
• downside protection
• nickel
• potash
• oil and gas
• gold market
• risk management

Keywords

• commodities
• nickel
• potash
• gold
• oil and gas
• investment strategies
• risk management

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: BHP, Nutrien, Mosaic, Altius Minerals

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