Steve Hanke: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on Iran War, The Commodity Super Cycle & Gold

Steve Hanke: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on Iran War, The Commodity Super Cycle & Gold

From Palisades Gold Radio by Collin Kettell

July 21, 2026 · 49 min

About this episode

Steve Hanke discusses the impact of major global conflicts on commodity markets and provides insights on oil and gold investments.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Steve Hanke back to the show. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia’s cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors. On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a…

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