Market’s “Rolling Recession”: 18-Year Cycle 2026 Update | Logan Freeman
About this episode
Logan Freeman discusses the current state of the real estate market and his predictions for 2026 based on the 18.6-year cycle.
Logan Freeman is back for his 2026 update on the 18.6-year real estate cycle: breaking down where he believes we are right now (still in the “Winner’s Curse,” but with a messy, sector-by-sector twist) and what signals he’s watching to spot a true shift into contraction. We dig into the big contradictions investors are feeling: transaction volumes and pricing stabilization on one hand, and real pain in certain sectors (office distress, Sunbelt multifamily oversupply, looming debt maturities) on the other. Logan’s take: we’re in a “rolling recession by sector,” where top-quartile assets and defensive niches can behave like late expansion while over-levered commodity assets behave like early contraction. Finally, Logan shares how he’s positioning his own capital, why he’s focused on small-bay industrial with yard space, industrial outdoor storage economics, and the land/power/infrastructure race behind data centers, plus his predictions for 2026 transaction volume, rates, and pricing heading into 2027. Key Takeaways The 18.6-year cycle refresher: recovery → expansion → Winner’s Curse → contraction, and why psychology + credit matter Why 2025–early 2026 looks “bifurcated”: office vs…
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