Quantifying Deception & The Rays’ Fast Start
From Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball by The Athletic
May 7, 2026 · 1h 2m
About this episode
The episode discusses a new deception model in baseball, the current leaders in deception, and the performance of the Rays' rotation.
Eno, Trevor, and DVR unveil Trevor’s new deception model, digging into how it works, what it’s designed to measure, and the challenges of quantifying deception. They also break down the current leaders in deception among starters and relievers, and reveal where listeners can access the model (Hint: coming soon to Discord!). Later, they bring back How I’d Pitch This Guy with a look at Junior Caminero before shifting to the Rays’ rotation, focusing on Shane McClanahan and Griffin Jax. Rundown: 1:15 Quantifying Deception: From 2016 to 2026 8:39 Current Kings of Deception: Top-Five Starting Pitchers for 2026 9:30 Current Kings of Deception: Top-Five Relief Pitchers for 2026 15:10 Looking to the Future: More Precision From Impact of Hitter's Vision? 23:15 Deception Model Coming Soon to Discord! 23:51 The Rays' 24-12 Start: What's Working Thus Far? 26:04 Is the League Pitching the Rays Wrong? 36:44 How I'd Pitch This Guy: Junior Caminero 42:33 Starkville Sneak Peek 44:38 Knocking the Rust Off: Shane McClanahan 49:46 Getting Out of Rehab Mode 54:37 Expectations for Griffin Jax as a Starter Eno's FanGraphs Blog Post: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-attempt-to-quantify-pitcher-deception/…
People in this episode
Hosts: Eno, Trevor, DVR
Topics covered
- deception model
- Rays' fast start
- pitching analysis
- Junior Caminero
- Shane McClanahan
- Griffin Jax
Keywords
- deception
- pitching
- Rays
- Junior Caminero
- Shane McClanahan
- Griffin Jax
- baseball analysis
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: The Athletic, Discord
Books & works: Eno's FanGraphs Blog Post
More episodes of Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball
- Draft-Day Regrets, Prospect Talk & Waiver Wire Prep · June 12, 2026 · 1h 19m
- Fear the Regression Monster, or Feed the Beast? · June 11, 2026 · 1h 8m
- Breaking Down Five Young Hitters & Their Future Outlooks · June 10, 2026 · 1h 0m
- Surprising Teams & The Cubs’ Unusual Path to the Middle · June 9, 2026 · 1h 1m
- Starting Pitcher Stock Watch · June 8, 2026 · 1h 9m
- Starkville | Brewing Up Something Special with GM Matt Arnold · June 6, 2026 · 55 min
Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball podcast page.