RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening

About this episode

The episode discusses the intersection of the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and a softening labor market within the context of late-cycle market dynamics.

RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. The team discusses the “Hamilton Trigger” for energy, February’s weak jobs report, why the Fed may struggle to cut rates amid supply shocks, and how inflation pressures are shifting the RenMac Market Cycle Clock. The team also explore cracks forming in credit, the vulnerability of crowded momentum trades in tech, housing gridlock as mortgage rates rise, and the political backdrop heading into the midterms.

Topics covered

• Iran conflict
• oil prices
• labor market
• Hamilton Trigger
• jobs report
• Fed rates
• supply shocks
• inflation
• credit
• momentum trades
• housing market
• midterms

Keywords

• energy
• market cycle
• credit vulnerability
• mortgage rates

Mentioned in this episode

Places: Iran

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