The Tehran Calculus: How, When, and If - with ex-Mossad official Sima Shine

About this episode

The episode features an interview with Sima Shine discussing the potential for war with Iran and its implications for regional security.

Is a direct war with Iran inevitable, and what happens the day after the first strike? In this episode of the ROPESCAST, we sit down with Sima Shine, former senior Mossad official and leading Iran expert at the INSS institute, to cut through the rhetoric and look at the hard calculus of a regional conflict. We break down the realistic scenarios of an escalation, analyze the current risk appetite in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran, and examine how a war would fundamentally redraw the Middle East’s security architecture. A sober, intelligence-driven look at the interests, the risks, and the timeline. Chapters: 0:38 – Who Is Simma Shine? 1:10 – Is War With Iran Really Imminent? 2:28 – Massive U.S. Military Buildup: What Does It Mean? 4:02 – Inside the U.S.–Iran Negotiation Gap 8:04 – The Regional & Domestic Pressures on Trump’s Decision 14:11 – Understanding Iran’s Mindset 19:04 – Iran’s Internal Crisis: Economy, Protests & Regime Fragility 27:16 – Would a Deal With Trump Endanger the Regime? 🌐 Learn more about ROPES: ropes.org 📩 Don’t forget to subscribe to the ROPESCAST for more stories of peace, dialogue, and impact across the Middle East.

People in this episode

Guest: Sima Shine

Topics covered

• Iran conflict
• Middle East security
• U.S. military strategy
• regional tensions
• Iran's internal crisis
• diplomatic negotiations

Keywords

• Iran
• Mossad
• Sima Shine
• Middle East
• U.S. military buildup
• Trump
• regional conflict
• diplomacy
• security architecture

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Mossad, INSS

Places: Iran, Washington, Jerusalem, Tehran, Middle East

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