
The episode discusses the potential downfall of the Kerch Bridge amidst the ongoing conflict in Crimea and the military capabilities of Ukraine.
2026-06-10 | UPDATES #211 | The question every serious Western analyst should now be asking is not whether the Kerch Bridge will eventually be brought down, but when. And the analytical answer to that question runs through five operational variables.Variable one: Western long-range strike enablers. The Hudson Institute analysis from October 2023 — Bryan Clark and Can Kasapoglu — laid out the case directly: Ukraine needs Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles fired from F-16 fighters with German Taurus KEPD-350 missiles as an alternative payload. The F-16s have been operationally deployed by Ukraine since mid-2024. The Taurus transfer has remained politically blocked by successive German governments. But the matrix of available capabilities has not gone backwards. Ukraine has the F-16s, has access to Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG, has the targeting expertise, and has been progressively improving its ability to deploy these weapons against Russian air-defence umbrellas. The political constraint — Western governments insisting that long-range Western missiles not be used against the Kerch Bridge or other targets inside Crimea proper — has been one of the most damaging restrictions of…
Host: Jonathan Fink
Organizations: Hudson Institute
Products: Storm Shadow, SCALP-EG, Taurus KEPD-350
Places: Germany, Crimea
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