About this episode

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza analyze the political landscape leading up to the 2026 midterms, focusing on challenges for Trump's GOP and opportunities for Democrats.

With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate. From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic…

People in this episode

Host: Chuck Todd

Guest: Chris Cillizza

Topics covered

• 2026 midterms
• Trump's GOP
• polling analysis
• Republican challenges
• Democratic strategies
• political races
• current events

Keywords

• Trump
• Republicans
• Democrats
• polling
• midterms
• Super Tuesday
• politics
• elections
• approval ratings
• independents

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Democrats, Republicans, ICE, Qatari

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