Why This Rally May Be Too Early

Why This Rally May Be Too Early

From The DeFi Report by Michael Nadeau

April 22, 2026 · 33 min · Episode 16

About this episode

The episode discusses the current Bitcoin rally and the potential for a bear market setup.

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. ---- 📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins 5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data 8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts 10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns 14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles 18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis 26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion 32:07 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

People in this episode

Host: Michael Nadeau

Guest: Ryan

Topics covered

  • Bitcoin
  • bear market
  • market cycles
  • investment strategy
  • onchain analysis

Keywords

  • Bitcoin
  • bear market
  • investment
  • market cycles
  • onchain data
  • dip buyers
  • portfolio strategy

Sponsors

GALAXYONE

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: SOLANA, The DeFi Report, bankless.cc, transistor.fm, x.com

More episodes of The DeFi Report

Explore listener stats, chart rankings, contacts and more on the The DeFi Report podcast page.