[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

[Episode #265] – IEA World Energy Outlook 2025

From The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder by XE Network

December 17, 2025 · 21 min · Episode 265

About this episode

Chris Nelder discusses the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 with lead author Tim Gould, exploring the implications of the report on energy transition and fossil fuel demand.

In November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) report. It was greeted with cheers from the fossil fuel industry and jeers from energy transitionistas, but there is much more to the report than either camp's narratives suggest. So Chris returned to IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss the WEO with lead author Tim Gould, as he has done for the past two years ( Episode #215 and Episode #248 ), to get the story straight from the source. What he found is that the revived Current Policies Scenario (CPS) shows what could happen if the energy transition is stopped in its tracks and fossil fuel demand continues to grow, as the Trump administration has stated it would like to see. While other scenarios explore continued progress in energy transition consistent with recent reports, where oil demand still peaks around 2030, and coal demand falls before the decade ends. The report's updated global data tells another story. The oil industry spends $550 billion annually on upstream development, and 90% of that just keeps production flat. Meanwhile, 45% of new heavy freight trucks sold in China this year run on electricity or LNG, not diesel…

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