Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand

Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand

From The Ezra Klein Show by New York Times Opinion

April 3, 2026 · 1h 2m

About this episode

The episode discusses the implications of President Trump's approach to Iran and the potential outcomes of military operations.

In a prime time address on Wednesday, President Trump proclaimed that America was “on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat.” But he also kept open the option of boots on the ground. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also about to start really biting – as countries get hit with shortages, which would spike prices across the globe. So what are Trump’s options? What would happen if he just declared victory and walked away from the fight? What kinds of military operations are on the table? If Trump ended the war without achieving his strategic goals, what would that mean for the United States, for Iran and for the world? “I don’t see a victory in real terms at the end of this crisis…,” Suzanne Maloney told me. “And that is a very dangerous outcome for the long term.” Maloney is one of Washington’s leading Iran experts. She has advised several presidential administrations and has written or edited a number of books on Iran. She is the vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program. Note: This conversation was recorded on Wednesday morning, before Trump’s speech on the war. But the speech reflected Maloney’s analysis almost…

People in this episode

Host: Ezra Klein

Guest: Suzanne Maloney

Topics covered

  • Iran
  • US foreign policy
  • military strategy
  • global economy
  • Middle East

Keywords

  • Iran
  • Trump
  • military operations
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • foreign policy
  • Suzanne Maloney

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Brookings Institution

Books & works: The Iranian Revolution at Forty, The Twilight War

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