About this episode

Jacob Shapiro discusses the complexities of Mexico's national security with analyst Victor Hernandez, highlighting the challenges posed by cartels and military involvement.

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro and Framing (01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez (02:44) - Victor Background and Career (05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption (07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism (10:25) - Morena and Military Power (15:29) - Future of Militarization (17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities (22:26) - Will the US Intervene (26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout (29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies (33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification (39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation (44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks (51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong (54:24) - Closing and Outro -- Referenced in the Show: Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0…

People in this episode

Host: Jacob Shapiro

Guest: Victor Hernandez

Topics covered

• Mexico
• cartels
• national security
• militarization
• corruption
• US intervention

Keywords

• Mexico
• cartels
• Victor Hernandez
• militarization
• US drone strikes
• corruption
• El Mencho

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: ILEES

Places: Mexico

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