One Bull in a Barn Full of Bears

One Bull in a Barn Full of Bears

From The Milk Check by T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders

December 11, 2025 · 23 min

About this episode

The episode discusses the current state of the dairy market, focusing on the oversupply of milk and its implications for farmers and the industry.

There’s milk everywhere: more milk in the U.S., Europe and New Zealand than a year ago, soft Class IV, and Class III futures that could slip into the $13s once you plug in today’s spot cheese and whey. With a long milk wave crashing over the dairy industry, will farmers start culling cows and leaving stalls empty? Inside the episode, the team churns through: Why strong balance sheets, paid-down debt and high cow values could delay a production pullback How lower feed costs shift the breakeven – but can’t fully offset falling milk checks Why Western and cheese-focused regions like the Pacific Northwest, California and Idaho may struggle first How WPC 80, WPI and clear whey proteins have become the lone bulls – and why capacity constraints limit the industry’s response Why there are limits to what customers can pay for whey, and where substitution is already happening It’s a barn full of bears on butter, cheese and fluid milk, but the protein complex is still flexing. The question is how long that can last? Tune in to The Milk Check episode 88: One bull in a barn full of bears to hear how our traders are navigating a market that’s bearish on volume but still bullish on protein. Got…

People in this episode

Host: Ted Jacoby III

Topics covered

  • dairy market analysis
  • milk production
  • cow culling
  • feed costs
  • protein market
  • whey pricing
  • dairy industry trends

Keywords

  • milk supply
  • dairy industry
  • Class IV futures
  • cow values
  • feed costs
  • whey proteins
  • butter
  • cheese
  • fluid milk
  • protein complex

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: T.C. Jacoby & Co.

Places: U.S., Europe, New Zealand, Pacific Northwest, California, Idaho

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