The Market is Lying to Us

The Market is Lying to Us

From The Milk Check by T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders

January 16, 2026 · 27 min · Episode 90

About this episode

The episode discusses the conflicting signals in dairy markets despite increased milk production.

Milk production is up 4.5% — but somehow, milk is clearing. Something doesn’t add up. In this episode of The Milk Check, the team uncovers the shifts reshaping dairy economics in 2026. Ted Jacoby III leads a classic market roundtable with the Jacoby team to unpack what they’re seeing as dairy transitions out of the holiday demand season and into early-year reality. Despite 4.5% year-over-year milk production growth, milk is clearing in many regions. Cheese and butter markets are under pressure, but inventories aren’t yet burdensome. Protein markets remain tight. And nonfat dry milk is showing surprising strength. So what’s going on? In this episode, we cover: Why added processing capacity may be masking where supply is really long How cheese and butter are absorbing milk that would normally back up at the farm Why protein demand is tightening skim solids and whey markets Whether nonfat’s recent rally is real or a phantom And which dairy market narratives the team thinks are wrong right now If you’re trying to make sense of conflicting signals across milk, fat, protein and powder, this episode delivers the context behind the numbers. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 90: The…

People in this episode

Host: Ted Jacoby III

Guest: Diego Carvallo

Topics covered

  • dairy economics
  • milk production
  • market analysis
  • cheese and butter markets
  • protein markets
  • nonfat dry milk

Keywords

  • milk production
  • dairy economics
  • cheese market
  • butter market
  • protein demand
  • nonfat dry milk
  • market analysis

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: T.C. Jacoby & Co.

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