About this episode

This episode explores whether prediction markets are effective forecasting tools or merely gambling platforms.

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Christy Goldsmith Romero, Former Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) We discuss: How prediction markets are turning the world into a “casino” where you can bet on almost anything, from elections and geopolitics to sports and niche events. The evolution of prediction markets from academic tools to mainstream platforms shaping finance, politics, and culture. Why these markets sometimes outperform polls, where they fall short, and how they blur the line between forecasting and entertainment-driven gambling. As Rebecca Patterson asks: “Are these markets actually useful, or are they just gambling dressed up as forecasting?” The legal gray areas that are allowing prediction markets to expand so quickly and the growing risk of manipulation and…

People in this episode

Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Sebastian Mallaby

Guest: Christy Goldsmith Romero

Topics covered

• prediction markets
• forecasting tools
• gambling
• finance
• politics
• risk management

Keywords

• prediction markets
• forecasting
• gambling
• risk
• information pricing
• manipulation
• crowdsourcing

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Council on Foreign Relations, Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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