135 - Is China the Kingmaker in Myanmar’s Civil War?

About this episode

The episode discusses China's role as a kingmaker in Myanmar's ongoing civil war and the implications for the country's future governance.

Once hailed as a beacon of democratic reform in Southeast Asia, Myanmar has devolved into a fractured state defined by a brutal, multi-front civil war following the 2021 military coup. The Junta clings to power in the central cities through terror and forced conscription, while a patchwork of resistance forces controls the periphery but struggles with donor fatigue and ammunition shortages. Yet, following the shockwaves of Operation 1027 and the rise of a narcotics-and-scam-fueled war economy, the conflict has shifted. China, the region’s hesitant kingmaker, is now applying direct pressure on both sides to secure its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. With the country effectively split and neither side possessing the strength to deliver a knockout blow, the question remains: is Myanmar destined to fracture like Yugoslavia, or can a unified state still emerge from the ashes? Our panel of experts examines the stalled frontlines, Beijing’s evolving strategy, and the grim reality of who, if anyone, can actually govern the nation in 2026. On the panel this week: - Zachary Abuza (National Defence University) - Derek Mitchell (CSIS) - Jason Tower (GI-TOC) - Steve Ross (Stimson…

People in this episode

Guests: Zachary Abuza, Derek Mitchell, Jason Tower, Steve Ross

Topics covered

• Myanmar civil war
• China's influence
• democratic reform
• military coup
• geopolitical strategy
• resistance forces
• governance challenges

Keywords

• Myanmar
• China
• civil war
• military coup
• geopolitics
• resistance
• governance
• Operation 1027
• Yugoslavia

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: National Defence University, CSIS, GI-TOC, Stimson Center

Places: Myanmar, China, Indian Ocean, Yugoslavia

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