387. Houston, We Have a Slowdown: Loan Outcomes, CRE Reality, & Capital on the Move
About this episode
The episode discusses the mixed signals in the economy, focusing on retail sales, loan outcomes in commercial real estate, and notable market developments.
This week, the data is sending mixed signals about the state of the economy. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down February retail sales coming in stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer was still holding up earlier in the year, even as more recent data points to some softening beneath the surface and rates remain volatile. We also take a step back to examine long-term cycles, using the Artemis II mission as a lens to compare today’s economy and built environment to 1972, the last time humans orbited the moon. In commercial real estate (CRE), we dive into what happens as loans reach maturity, tracking a cohort over time to understand how many pay off, refinance, extend, or fall into distress. We also cover the latest CMBS delinquency data, along with notable headlines including a record-breaking $327.50 per square foot office lease in NYC, BGO’s $350 million acquisition of Bell Partners, and CVS’s plans to open more stores than it closes in 2026. Episode notes: Economic Update: Retail Sales & Consumer Trends (0:28) Artemis II Mission: Economic Indicators Since 1972 Analysis (13:32) Loan Performance Data Analysis: Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 (24:56) Trepp’s…
People in this episode
Host: The TreppWire Podcast
Topics covered
- economic update
- commercial real estate
- loan performance
- retail sales
- consumer trends
- delinquency data
- real estate acquisitions
Keywords
- economic signals
- retail sales
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: CVS, BGO
Products: CMBS
Places: Houston, NYC
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