394. The Inflation Games: The Fed Transition & Trimmed Mean PCE, Regional Bank & Mortgage REIT Earnings, & AI-Driven Real Estate Transactions

About this episode

The episode discusses macroeconomic factors affecting markets, including the Federal Reserve's outlook, inflation metrics, and trends in commercial real estate.

In this week’s episode of the TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the latest macro uncertainties shaping markets, from the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook to the potential transition to a Warsh-led Fed. We also share a 101 on Trimmed Mean PCE, explaining how the metric works, why it matters, and why it is gaining attention as an alternative way to read underlying inflation trends. We also examine mixed signals across commercial real estate (CRE), highlighting strength in data centers and AI-driven office leasing in San Francisco alongside cooling housing trends. The conversation digs into earnings and deal activity, including a strong quarter from CBRE driven by infrastructure momentum. We highlight cautious return to lending from mortgage REITs and improving credit trends among regional banks from recent Trepp research. Finally, we discuss major transactions like Ken Griffin expanding office footprint at planned Miami headquarters, Supermicro’s large San Jose lease, and Oracle’s Michigan data center project. Tune in now. Episode notes: Economic Update (0:29) Market Outlook, Data Centers & AI (2:09) Housing Market & Oil Prices (9:28) FOMC Meeting and Rate Decisions (26:45)…

Topics covered

• macroeconomic uncertainties
• Trimmed Mean PCE
• commercial real estate
• mortgage REITs
• regional bank earnings
• AI-driven transactions

Keywords

• inflation
• Federal Reserve
• commercial real estate
• mortgage REITs
• Trimmed Mean PCE
• AI-driven leasing
• regional banks
• CBRE earnings

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Federal Reserve, CBRE, Supermicro, Oracle, Trepp

Places: San Francisco, Miami, Michigan, San Jose

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