Ex-CIA analyst predicted Iran crisis years ago - so why was Trump surprised?
From The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim by Sky News
June 3, 2026 · 38 min
About this episode
Richard Engel interviews Ken Pollack about the Iran crisis and the Trump administration's expectations following a war game simulation conducted years earlier.
In 2012, a former CIA analyst ran a war game between the US and Iran. One of the first things he found was that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after America attacked. From there, his war game spiralled to a grisly end. So why did the Trump administration expect a quick victory? Fourteen years after the war game, Richard Engel sits down with Ken Pollack - the man behind the war game and now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute to ask him exactly this. Would Trump and his team have been given this information? Why did he press ahead? The two also discuss the situation inside Iran as well as Israel's renewed strike on Lebanon, and ask the big question: where is this all going next? You can email your questions to Richard and Yalda at theworld@sky.uk You can also watch our podcasts on our YouTube channel here .
People in this episode
Hosts: Richard Engel, Yalda Hakim
Guest: Ken Pollack
Topics covered
- Iran crisis
- US foreign policy
- Middle East tensions
- war games
- Trump administration
- geopolitical analysis
Keywords
- Iran
- Trump
- war game
- Middle East
- CIA
- geopolitics
- Strait of Hormuz
- Lebanon
- foreign policy
Mentioned in this episode
Organizations: CIA, Middle East Institute
Places: Iran, United States, Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon
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