Prediction Markets: Investing, Gambling or a Haven for Insider Trading?

About this episode

The episode discusses the decline of major tech stocks, the residential real estate cycle, and the complexities of prediction markets with insights from guest Andrew Courtney.

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos look at why the Magnificent Seven stocks—including Microsoft, Meta, and Google parent Alphabet—are losing their luster. Are investors finally demanding to see results from AI spending, or are they content with the continued AI infrastructure spending? Then, they dive into the residential real-estate cycle, where we’ve seen national rent growth hit a decade low. Could deeply discounted multifamily Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, be the value play of the year? Then, Telis and Miriam confront prediction markets, which have been in the news lately for high-profile arrests of insiders accused of trading on confidential information. They are joined by former Susquehanna International Group trader Andrew Courtney, co-founder of prediction markets platform Kalshinomics, who digs into the mechanics of these zero-sum contracts, insider trading and the ongoing legal battles with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission over their classification. Courtney details how professional market makers provide the liquidity that distinguishes them from a bet against the house. And he gives his…

People in this episode

Hosts: Miriam Gottfried, Telis Demos

Guest: Andrew Courtney

Topics covered

• prediction markets
• investing
• real estate
• AI spending
• insider trading
• market analysis

Keywords

• prediction markets
• insider trading
• real estate
• AI
• investing
• market makers
• REITs

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Susquehanna International Group, Kalshinomics, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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