Adam May on $ABVX's blowout data and subsequent stock crash

About this episode

Adam May discusses the recent data from Abivax and the market's reaction, including a significant stock crash attributed to perceived cancer risks.

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit. This episode is s ponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters: 00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR) 01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors 02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns 03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes 06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq 10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq 14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash 16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case 24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism…

People in this episode

Host: Andrew Walker

Guest: Adam May

Topics covered

• biotech data analysis
• stock market reaction
• cancer signals
• ulcerative colitis treatment
• investing strategies
• AI in investing

Keywords

• Abivax
• ulcerative colitis
• stock crash
• cancer signal
• biotech
• investing
• AI webinar
• Nectar
• Eli Lilly lawsuit

Sponsors

AlphaSense

Mentioned in this episode

Organizations: Abivax, Rinvoq, Nectar, Eli Lilly

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