About this episode

Leo Trudel discusses the implications of oral GLP-1s on Stevanato's business and the broader market for biologics.

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view. [ 00:00:00 ] Podcast intro and guest welcome [ 00:03:08 ] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[ 00:03:51 ] COVID boom and the destocking cycle [ 00:06:39 ] Why the stock sold off and what it implies [ 00:07:34 ] Market expectations vs. reality [ 00:11:55 ] Margin expansion from mix shift [ 00:14:40 ] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate [ 00:17:30 ] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable [ 00:19:44 ] Capacity additions and oversupply risk [ 00:21:00 ] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1 [ 00:23:04 ] Management trust and capital allocation [ 00:26:52 ] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat [ 00:29:42 ] What could…

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